More than half of former host cities for the Winter Olympics will be literally too hot to handle such games by the end of this century. That’s the prediction of a study published this week forecasting temperatures and snow cover for the 21 host cities.
And it’s not just the Olympics that are at risk. “The world of winter sports is changing as the global climate continues to warm,” says Daniel Scott. He is a climate-change researcher in Canada who works at the University of Waterloo in Ontario. He led a team of researchers who used math to predict how winter conditions will have changed by February 2050 and 2080. Why focus on February? That's the month in which the Olympic winter games are typically played.
“Winter sports and the cultural activities that go with them may go by the wayside for people living in some regions,” he says.
And ski tourism is no small issue. Across the globe, it brings in billions of dollars’ worth of funds to communities large and small. But the biggest ski-tourism bonanzas may be those associated with the Olympics.
Winter Olympics are usually held every four years. Scott and his team team considered projections for future weather in 21 cities. These included the 19 cities that already have hosted Winter Olympics. The team also looked at two additional cities. The first is this year’s host: PyeongChang, South Korea. The second is Beijing, China. That's where the 2022 Winter Olympics will take place.
The good news: Both PyeongChang and Beijing should be cold enough in February to be available for winter Olympic games through 2080.
It was 2014 when Scott’s team first reported finding that “it would be difficult to imagine recent host cities/regions successfully delivering the diverse [Olympic] Games programme exclusively on natural ice and snow.” They’d need to supplement Mother Nature’s white fluff with artificially made snow. That can be done. But it’s costly and doesn’t always supply the quantity and quality of snow that gold-medal-class athletes expect.
Their new assessment appeared February 6 in the journal Current Issues in Tourism.
The warming effect of greenhouse gases
Studies have shown that releases of greenhouse gases in recent years have played a big role helping to warm the planet. So Scott's group analyzed two scenarios. In one, they assumed releases of those gases would continue to grow as they have been in recent years. Then, they calculated how February temperatures across the globe would change by 2050.
They would likely rise by 2.6 degrees Celsius (4.7 degrees Fahrenheit), they now report. (That’s compared to before the Industrial Revolution, when releases of greenhouse gases first started to climb.) By 2080, those temps would likely rise by 4.3 degrees C (7.7 degrees F).
The team also looked at what would happen if governments around the world cut greenhouse-gas releases. Then temperatures might rise by only 1.6 degrees C (2.9 degrees F) by 2050. After that, they could hold steady at 1.6 degrees C above the past, long-term average — even as late as 2080.
However, notes Scott, whether countries could achieve that is “a big ‘if.’” Indeed, he says, keeping releases of those gases from climbing is “an ambitious target.” Even if nations pledged to cut releases of these, they still might not hit their goal.
Under the make-no-changes scenario, nine of the host sites will be too warm for the games by 2050. Those include Sochi, Russia, and the alpine cities of Grenoble in France and Garmisch-Partenkirchen in Germany. The number increases to 13 cities by 2080. Cutting down current rates of greenhouse-gas releases would help. But even then, eight former Winter Olympics sites still would be unable to host the games by 2050. Nine wouldn’t qualify by 2080.
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Predicting the future
To come up with both sets of these predictions, Scott’s team started by looking at historic winter conditions. The researchers found the average February daytime temperature of the 19 sites of the former winter games has increased steadily. Average temps rose from 0.4 °C (33 °F) at the sites of games held in the 1920s through 1950s, to 3.1 °C (38 °F) in games held during from the 1960s through 1990s. For games held since 2000, February averages are now about 7.8°C (46 °F).
The researchers then used computer models to predict conditions in the future. A computer model is a program that runs on a computer and calculates what is likely to occur. (One example may be estimates of temperatures likely to develop in the real world.) The researchers’ model is based on those used by hundreds of scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC.
Their model predicted that by 2050, the average February temperatures in past Winter Olympic host sites will likely warm an extra 1.9 to 2.1 degrees C (3.4 to 3.8 degrees F). By 2080, temperatures will rise by 2.7 to 4.4 degrees C (4.9 to 7.9 degrees F) over what they are today.
Scott and his team also looked at the effect of these temperatures on snow. Many winter sports need a base of at least 30 centimeters (about a foot) of snow. The researchers assumed that a city could no longer handle outdoor games if it would have less than this amount.
The researchers made predictions for both natural snow and that made artificially. (Artificial snow is made by spraying fine droplets of water into the air through hoses. If the air is cold enough — at least – 5 °C [23 °F] — water freezes right away and falls as snow.) Even if daytime temperatures are above freezing, people can make snow if nighttime temperatures are below that minimum temperature.
Daytime warmth is another important factor. It can affect the quality of snow. Warming can make ski courses too fast or too slow. Skiing at an Olympic level already can be a dangerous activity. Poor snow quality can up the risk of accidents.
Beyond the Olympics
In the paper released last week, Scott’s team also considered the effects of climate change on the Winter Paralympics. These are similar to the Olympics, but the competing athletes all have some type of disability. The Paralympics are held in March, a month after the Winter Olympics. Temperatures and snow cover in March can be even less winter-like, Scott points out.
If there is no drop in greenhouse-gas emissions, 13 cities would no longer be able to handle the Winter Paralympics by 2050, the study finds. By 2080, that number would climb to 17. Yet even with cuts in releases of those gases, 11 cities still fall off the list of possible hosts for the Winter Paralympics by 2050 and 2080.
Scott would therefore like to see organizers to combine the two games in February, when colder temperatures would be more reliable.
Other research suggests the effect of rising temperatures won’t be limited to Olympic athletes. A study of 247 ski hills in the United States projected that nearly all will see shorter ski seasons. The length of the average ski season would likely fall by more than half by 2050 — and by 80 percent within the 30 years after that.
Cameron Wobus is part of the team that published these calculations in Global Environmental Change last July. Wobus is a scientist who uses math to understand environmental changes and their effects on people. He works for a science consulting company called Abt Associates in Boulder, Colo.
Sites that would see the shortest ski seasons are in the U.S. Northeast, he found. “That’s mostly because the elevation [there] is much lower than in the West,” he says. “When you are up high, at 12,000 feet [3,700 meters], it’s much cooler in the winter.”
If Winter Olympics organizers want reliable cold temperatures, he says, they will have to hold the games at high elevations. One catch: Few cities could meet this requirement.
atmosphere The envelope of gases surrounding Earth or another planet.
average (in science) A term for the arithmetic mean, which is the sum of a group of numbers that is then divided by the size of the group.
climate The weather conditions that typically exist in one area, in general, or over a long period.
climate change Long-term, significant change in the climate of Earth. It can happen naturally or in response to human activities, including the burning of fossil fuels and clearing of forests.
computer model A program that runs on a computer that creates a model, or simulation, of a real-world feature, phenomenon or event.
elevation The height or altitude at which something exists.
greenhouse A light-filled structure, often with windows serving as walls and ceiling materials, in which plants are grown. It provides a controlled environment in which set amounts of water, humidity and nutrients can be applied — and pests can be prevented entry.
greenhouse gas A gas that contributes to the greenhouse effect by absorbing heat. Carbon dioxide is one example of a greenhouse gas.
Industrial Revolution A period of time around 1750 that was marked by new manufacturing processes and a switch from wood to coal and other fossil fuels as a main source of energy.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC. This international group keeps tabs on the newest published research on climate and on how ecosystems are responding to it. The United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization jointly created the IPCC in 1988. Their aim was to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and social impacts.
model A simulation of a real-world event (usually using a computer) that has been developed to predict one or more likely outcomes.
risk The chance or mathematical likelihood that some bad thing might happen. For instance, exposure to radiation poses a risk of cancer. Or the hazard — or peril — itself. (For instance: Among cancer risks that the people faced were radiation and drinking water tainted with arsenic.)
scenario A possible (or likely) sequence of events and how they might play out.
weather Conditions in the atmosphere at a localized place and a particular time. It is usually described in terms of particular features, such as air pressure, humidity, moisture, any precipitation (rain, snow or ice), temperature and wind speed. Weather constitutes the actual conditions that occur at any time and place. It’s different from climate, which is a description of the conditions that tend to occur in some general region during a particular month or season.
Journal: D. Scott et al. The changing geography of the Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in a warmer world. Current Issues in Tourism. Published online February 6, 2018. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2018.1436161.
Journal: D. Scott et al. The differential futures of ski tourism in Ontario (Canada) under climate change: The limits of snowmaking adaptation. Current Issues in Tourism. November 21, 2017, p. 1. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2017.1401984.
Journal: R. Steiger et al. A critical review of climate change risk for ski tourism. Current Issues in Tourism. December 8, 2017, p. 1. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2017.1410110.
Journal: C. Wobus et al. Projected climate change impacts on skiing and snowmobiling: A case study of the United States. Global Environmental Change. Vol. 45, July 2017, p. 1. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.04.006.
Journal: M. Rutty et al. Weather risk management at the Olympic Winter Games. Current Issues in Tourism. February 17, 2014, p. 1. doi:10.1080/13683500.2014.887665.
Journal: D. Scott et al. The future of the Olympic Winter Games in an era of climate change. Current Issues in Tourism. Vol. 14, January 14, 2014, p. 913. doi: 10.1080/13683500.2014.887664.